446 Days and Counting: Recession Signal Fails to Predict Economic Downturn For 446 days, the bond market’s yield curve inversion, often seen as a recession predictor, has not resulted in an economic downturn. Historically, a normal yield curve shows higher long-term rates compared to short-term ones, indicating economic optimism. However, since July 5, 2022, the 2-year Treasury yield has consistently exceeded the 10-year rate, primarily due to aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation. This condition matches the length of a similar inversion from 1978 to 1980 but has yet to lead to the anticipated recession. « Previous Article Next Article » Share This Article Choose Your Platform: Facebook Twitter Google Plus Linkedin Related Posts Treasury Yields Dip Ahead of Fed Rate Decision READ MORE HSBC: Why Gold Prices Continue to Break Records READ MORE Federal Reserve Balances Rate Decisions Now That Inflation Has Slowed READ MORE Can I Buy Gold With a Credit or Debit Card? READ MORE Gold Tumbles Amid Global Stock Market Turmoil, but Outlook Remains Positive READ MORE Add a Comment Cancel replyYour email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *Name * Email * Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Comment